I suspect both methods are employed, the more cautious following the former and the more adventurous the latter. The fact that murmurations are constantly fluid suggests that there is an element of innovation. How else are new formations created? But here there must be other critical determinations at play to prevent all members of the crowd innovating at the same time, destroying the rhythm and flow of the collective group. Yet again a simple rule could determine the opportunity to innovate, based on recognition of cautious or adventurous members of the group. If your group contains 4 cautious flyers then feel free to change direction, though not in a direction to obstruct any of the seven reference points.

I am sure there are many other factors at play and many other explanations, but as you point out this could very well be relevant to how we as individuals act in a crowd. Are we cautious and conformant, or adventurous and innovative. If the latter how far do we stretch the rules. Clearly if you are a member of the second group your critical thinking capacity is challenged far more than the conformant group. Vive la difference.

Thanks for the post – stimulating as always.

I’d be willing to bet you’ll find research I did a few years ago, right on topic here, see slides at:
http://www.slideshare.net/dan.keldsen/innovation-crowds-myths-and-maturity

Great talking to you today – all sorts of opportunities at play.

Cheers,
Dan